Development pipeline data: reading what's actually getting built
A project can be 'in the pipeline' at five very different stages. Reading pipeline data means knowing which stage a number represents — and which ones never get built.
A project can be “in the pipeline” at five very different stages, and a headline number is meaningless until you know which one it counts. Reading development pipeline data well is mostly about that distinction — separating what has been announced from what is actually getting built. Here is the framework and the data behind each stage.
The five stages
Development moves through a rough sequence, and completion gets more likely at every step:
- Proposed — announced, or an application filed. High volume, low certainty.
- Approved — entitlements granted (rezoning, site plan). The right to build exists.
- Permitted — a building permit is issued: construction is authorized and, in practice, funded.
- Under construction — steel or concrete is going up.
- Delivered — the building is complete and occupiable.
The gap between stage 1 and stage 3 is where most of the attrition happens.
Which data covers which stage
No single source spans the whole pipeline, so pipeline analysis means stitching sources by stage:
- Proposed / approved — zoning and planning applications and land-use hearing agendas. This is the earliest, noisiest end.
- Permitted — building permits, the cleanest “this is really happening” marker.
- Starts / completions — the U.S. Census Bureau’s new-residential-construction series (starts, permits, completions) at the national and metro level, the standard macro read.
- Delivered — property and tax records confirming a finished building.
The trap: counting vaporware
The most common pipeline mistake is counting the proposed stage as if it were built. Announced projects face financing, entitlement, cost and market risk, and a large share stall or die before a permit is ever pulled. A “10,000 units in the pipeline” figure sourced from press releases and rezoning filings can overstate real delivery by a wide margin. The discipline is to anchor on the permitted and under-construction stages for anything you want to treat as reliable, and to label proposed-stage numbers as what they are: intent, not delivery.
Leading vs lagging
Read as indicators, the stages split cleanly. Zoning applications and permits are leading — they tell you what is coming. Completions and delivery data are lagging — they confirm what already happened. Watching the ratio between them (permits rising while completions lag, or vice versa) is often more informative than any single number.
How The American Developer reads the pipeline
We anchor on primary, stage-labeled records rather than announcements. The permit archive and builders leaderboard track the permitted stage across Miami-Dade; the approvals feed tracks the proposed-and-approved end; and our market coverage ties them to the macro Census read. Every figure is labeled by stage and cited — because a pipeline number without its stage is just a press release.
Frequently asked
- What are the stages of the development pipeline?
- Broadly: proposed (announced or applied for), approved (entitlements granted), permitted (construction authorized and funded), under construction, and delivered (completed). Each stage has a different probability of completion and a different data source, so a pipeline figure only means something once you know which stage it counts.
- Which data sources track the development pipeline?
- Zoning and planning applications cover the proposed and approved stages; building permits mark the permitted stage; Census new-residential-construction data tracks starts, permits and completions at the national and metro level; and property records confirm delivery. No single source spans the whole pipeline.
- Why do so many announced projects never get built?
- Proposed projects face financing, entitlement, cost and market risk before breaking ground, and many stall or die between announcement and permit. That is why a pipeline counted at the proposed stage overstates what will actually deliver — the permitted and under-construction stages are far more reliable.