USC Report: LA County's Affordability Rests on Aging Apartments

Los Angeles County’s remaining affordable rents sit mostly in older apartment buildings, not new construction, according to a USC Lusk Center for Real Estate study reported by CoStar News. The county’s own outcomes report, delivered to the Board of Supervisors on Feb. 20, 2026, puts a number on the risk: about 8,650 existing affordable homes could convert to market rate within five years.

Why it matters

For developers and preservation buyers in LA, the opportunity and the fight are in existing stock. When an existing affordable building is redeveloped, acquisition costs make up 40 to 58 percent of development costs, the county report says. That means preservation deals are won or lost on the purchase price, not on construction.

The numbers

The county administered 152,295 federal, state and county-supported affordable homes in calendar year 2024, up more than 3 percent from 2023. It still needs 485,667 more affordable homes to meet demand among lower-income renters, down from a shortfall of 581,823 in 2014. County investments in 2024 funded more than 2,300 affordable homes, more than the prior three years combined, mostly from No Place Like Home funds. To date the county has invested in nearly 600 affordable developments with 33,500 homes. Of the 8,650 homes at risk, 81 percent sit in transit-accessible neighborhoods. Through Project Homekey, the county has acquired 2,157 units to date. The state wound down Homekey in 2023 and replaced it with Homekey+.

What’s next

Preservation is the first of the report’s eight recommendations. The at-risk count comes from the California Housing Partnership’s assessment of developments nearing the end of their affordability restrictions or project-based subsidy contracts. Owners of those buildings will decide, one property at a time, whether to renew or convert. More on the market at the Los Angeles market hub.