New home sales hit 628,000 in June. Almost none of it counts

New single-family home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 in June, the Census Bureau and HUD reported this morning. That is 1.6 percent above May’s revised 618,000 and 5.6 percent below June 2025.

Beat or missed: neither, in any meaningful sense. The 1.6 percent monthly gain carries a confidence band of plus or minus 14.8 percent. The band is roughly nine times the change. The 5.6 percent annual decline carries a band of 13.2 percent. Census flags both as not statistically different from zero, and so should anyone quoting them.

Why it matters

Builders make land and starts decisions off this series, and the series mostly cannot resolve the thing they need it to resolve. Reading a 1.6 percent monthly move as a demand recovery is reading noise.

There is exactly one figure in the release that clears the significance test, and it points the other way. The average sale price of a new home fell 9.5 percent in a single month, against a band of 7.2 percent and no asterisk. That is a real move. The median fell 3.3 percent to $398,300, but that one is inside its own band.

Median and average diverging like this is a mix signal. When the average drops far harder than the median, the top of the market is what stopped transacting, or builders discounted their most expensive standing inventory hardest to move it. Either reading is a warning for anyone with move-up product in the ground.

The numbers

628,000 SAAR, plus 1.6 percent on the month and minus 5.6 percent on the year, both statistically insignificant. Median price $398,300, down 3.3 percent from May’s $412,000 and 2.7 percent from a year ago. Average price $475,400, down 9.5 percent from $525,200 in May and 6.5 percent from a year ago. Inventory of 485,000 homes for sale, down 0.2 percent on the month and 3.2 percent on the year. Months’ supply of 9.3, against 9.4 in May and 9.0 a year ago.

What’s next

The next print lands August 25. Watch whether the average price decline repeats, because one significant month is a data point and two is a trend. More national coverage.