Miami-Dade home sales rise 8.6% for 11th month, but streak cools
The streak is real. It is also slowing, and the condo numbers inside it point two different directions at once.
Miami-Dade total home sales rose 8.6% year over year in July, to 1,935 closings, marking an 11th consecutive month of annual gains, according to MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld data released Monday. But the streak is not accelerating. It is cooling from a June spike, and the two halves of the market underneath it are pulling in opposite directions.
Why it matters
Eleven straight months of growth is the headline MIAMI REALTORS wants agents to repeat. The number that matters more for anyone pricing a listing or advising a buyer is the trend inside the streak. May’s total sales were up 7.9% year over year. June jumped to 14.3%, the county’s best June in three years. July fell back to 8.6%. Single-family growth cooled hardest, from 16.8% in June to 5.6% in July, more than a straight reversion. That is a market normalizing after a strong month, not one building sustained momentum.
The numbers
Three figures set the July release: total sales up 8.6% to 1,935; single-family sales up 5.6% to 909; condo sales up 11.4% to 1,026. Sales above $1 million rose 15.5%, and condos priced $400,000 to $500,000 climbed 12.6%.
The divergence sits inside the condo column. Condo sales outpaced single-family growth, but the condo median price fell 1.48% year over year to $400,000, while single-family median price rose 3.79% to $685,000. Condo inventory stood at 12 months’ supply, a buyer’s market, against 4.8 months for single-family, a seller’s market. Cash accounted for 47.5% of condo transactions versus 21.2% of single-family. Rising condo volume, falling condo prices, heavy cash share and a 12-month supply overhang together look more like distress-priced units clearing, likely tied to post-Milestone assessment and insurance costs, than a rebound in condo demand. The data supports that read; it does not confirm a cause.
What’s next
Watch whether August holds above July’s 8.6% or keeps sliding toward May’s pace. A third straight month of deceleration would be the real story, not the streak count. For background on what is pushing condo owners to sell, see our coverage of Aventura’s unsafe-condo list and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s retirement of fast-track condo review. Full market data lives on our Miami hub.
On the record
What we checked ourselves, and where you can check it too.
- Public recordComparing the trailing three MIAMI REALTORS releases shows the streak decelerating, not accelerating: total sales grew 7.9% YoY in May, spiked to 14.3% in June (best June in three years), then fell back to 8.6% in July. Single-family growth cooled hardest, from 16.8% in June to 5.6% in July.View the record on miamirealtors.com
- Public recordCondo sales rose 11.4% YoY while the condo median price fell 1.48% YoY and condo inventory sat at 12 months' supply (a buyer's market), against single-family's 4.8 months (a seller's market) and 47.5% cash share on condo deals versus 21.2% on single-family, a pattern consistent with distress-priced condo inventory clearing rather than broad demand strength.View the record on prnewswire.com
- Our coverageInternal archive context on the condo side of this market: Aventura's unsafe-condo list and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's retirement of fast-track condo loan review.
Sources
- MIAMI REALTORS + RWorldMiami-Dade Total Home Sales Rise for 11th Consecutive Month
- PR NewswireMiami-Dade Total Home Sales Rise for 11th Consecutive Month