Construction planning dips as data center surge cools

The Dodge Momentum Index, a leading gauge of nonresidential projects entering planning, fell 1.9% in June 2026 as data center activity stepped back from the record pace it had set earlier in the year.

The decline followed two straight monthly gains and was concentrated in one place: commercial planning, which includes data centers, dropped 6.8% month over month, while institutional projects rose 10.9%. Within the commercial category, traditional office, warehouse, retail and hotel planning actually posted gains.

Why it matters

Data centers have been the single biggest force lifting construction pipelines through the AI buildout, so even a modest breather in that pipeline moves the national index. The split beneath the headline is the more useful signal for developers: institutional demand — schools, healthcare, public buildings — is strengthening, and several traditional commercial property types are quietly recovering, suggesting the pullback is a data center recalibration rather than a broad retreat.

The numbers

The overall index slipped 1.9% for the month. Commercial planning fell 6.8%, dragged by moderating data center activity, while institutional planning climbed 10.9%. Data centers, despite easing from extraordinary recent levels, remained the primary driver of commercial planning volume.

What’s next

Whether June marks a pause or a turn depends on how quickly hyperscalers restock their pipelines in the second half. “Despite June’s pullback, nonresidential planning remains on solid ground,” said Sarah Martin, director of economic research at Dodge Construction Network, framing the dip as a moderation from elevated levels rather than a downturn.