West Fort Worth flood study puts $1.18B of damage on builders' map

The North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) modeled about $1.18B in present-value flood damage across its western study area from 2027 to 2076 if nothing changes. For builders west of Fort Worth, the study’s policy menu is the part to watch: setbacks, valley storage and impervious-cover limits are all on it. Initial results were presented at a public meeting on Aug. 10, 2026, and Fort Worth Report covered them on Oct. 12, 2026. More on regional growth is in our Dallas-Fort Worth coverage.

Why it matters

The Integrated Transportation and Stormwater Infrastructure (TSI) study is a $10M-plus planning effort funded by the Texas General Land Office, the Texas Water Development Board and the Texas Department of Transportation. Its model assumes impervious cover climbs from 6.4% in 2020 to 35.2% in 2070 across the study area, per the NCTCOG slides. Lost valley storage and new pavement are the drivers, so the recommendations aim at site design, not just culverts.

The numbers

Under the no-action case, modeled annual damage for the TSI West subarea grows from $7.4M in 2027 to $40.9M in 2050 and $267.2M in 2076. Present-value damage by watershed:

• Upper Clear Fork Trinity: $690.2M, 58% of the total
• Mary’s Creek: $244.1M, 21%
• Village Creek: $57.3M, 5%
• Lake Worth: $110.7M, 9%
• Mountain Creek: $81.6M, 7%

The study lists 96 planning-level project locations, mostly creek road crossings. In a 500-year storm, it finds 400 more homes inundated if valley storage is not preserved. One detailed example, FM 3325 at Mary’s Creek, carries $3.8M in added cost against $14.3M in modeled damage reduction, a 3.8 benefit-cost ratio.

What’s next

The policy options are recommendations, not adopted rules. The slides list development setbacks, no-encroachment standards, preserving valley storage, fewer streets in floodplains and reduced impervious cover, and cite existing local codes as models. Fort Worth already requires compensatory storage and the higher of FEMA or fully developed elevations, while Johnson County sets a 3-foot freeboard. NCTCOG says the final report is expected in fall 2026 and will include a regional inventory of such rules. No adoption vote is scheduled in the materials we read. Builders should check how their pending plats would fare under tighter storage and runoff standards before those rules reach city councils and county courts.